Consumer confidence in Ukraine, October 2016: index equaled 51.6

The consumer confidence of Ukrainians improved in October the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) grew by 1.5 pp as compared to September and reached 51.

The Expected Changes in Personal Financial Standing and Propensity to Consume underwent the most considerable changes. It is proved by the data on Ukrainians’ consumer confidence survey conducted by GfK Ukraine on a monthly basis.

In October 2016, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was 51.6, which is 1.5 pp higher than in September.

Index of Current Situation (ICS) increased by 6.4 pp reaching 50.4. The components of this index changed in the following way: Index of Current Personal Financial Standing equalled 41.9, which is 2.9 pp higher than in September; Propensity to Consume (х5) reached 58.8, which is 9.8 pp higher than last month.

Index of Economic Expectations (IEE) decreased by 1.8 pp. reaching 52.4 in October. The components of this index changed in the following way: Index of Expected Changes in Personal Financial Standing (х2) decreased by 10.2 pp and equals 48.1; Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country over the Next Year (х3) increased by 1.3 pp and reached 44.4; Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country over the Next Five Years increased by 3.6 pp as compared to September and reached 64.6.

The expectations of Ukrainians regarding potential unemployment deteriorated in October: the Index of Expectations of Changes in Unemployment reached 148.1, which is 3.2 pp higher than in September.

The Index of Inflationary Expectations also somewhat decreased the one in October was 189, which is 1.7 pp lower than in September. The expectations of Ukrainians Concerning the hryvnia exchange rate over the next three months also decreased in October: index of devaluation expectations lost 5.3 pp and reached 155,7.

“In October 2016, there was a variety of trends: the Index of Expected Changes in Personal Financial Standing fell while the Propensity to Consume grew. These trends are characteristic of different groups. The decrease of the Index of Expected Changes in Personal Financial Standing was due to people of small towns (up to 500 thsd people) and groups of older people (aged 45 and over). At the same time, Propensity to Consume grew among the residents of big cities (over 500 thsd people), in groups aged under 45 and with middle and upper middle income”, as GfK Ukraine analysts comment.

https://rau.ua/ru/analytics/rashody-produkty-pitaniya/